Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Predicting This Year's American Idol Using the Scientific Method

All across America, students are at this very moment competing in prestigious science fairs.  Parents have scoured the nation's Walmarts looking for a good deal on tri-fold poster board while their budding Pavlovs and Copernicusses try to come up with a clever title for their project, something like "Pop Goes the Weasel: The Effect of Microwave Ovens on Rodents."

Not to be outdone, I'm going to conduct my own experiment here using nothing but the most proven research methods and scientific processes to draw a completely random conclusion.


Materials: My television, the Internet, a firm grasp of the obvious.

Question: Which of this year's semi-talented singers will earn the most coveted title in Hollywood?

Background Information: For those of you who have been living under a rock or in North Dakota, American Idol is a television program where a panel of judges and the voting audience conspire to foist a modestly talented singer upon the American public.  Over the course of what seems like an eternity, a billion potential Idols are winnowed down to the top twenty-four survivors who then compete on live television where the viewing audience votes for their favorite.  Each week the lowest vote-getter is eliminated until eventually a winner is crowned.  This year, the final ten hopefuls are:

Aaron Kelly: Teenage kid from a broken home who sings about as well as the second best singer in your immediate family. 

Andrew Garcia: Hispanic dude from Southern California who has stolen Drew Carey's glasses for the competition.  Decent singer with a penchant for performing songs made famous by female divas.

Casey James: Surfer-looking guy whose shining moment so far was when Idol judge Kara Dioguardi told him to take off his shirt during his audition.  Entertaining rocker with mad guitar skills.

Crystal Bowersox:  I think she's from Boston, but that might just be because her name reminds me of the Red Sox.  Probably the best singer of the group, but seems to have a bit of an attitude and looks like she's one of the orphans from the show Annie.

Didi Benami:  Blond chick who's not as good-looking as she thinks she is. 

Katie Stevens: High school kid who is constantly being told by the judges, "You had some pitch problems this week."  Translation: She can't friggin' sing.                                                                       
Lee Dewyze: Aside from having the coolest name of all the Idol finalists, he's also the toughest to figure out.  Looks like a rugged biker-type but he's quiet and unassuming, almost shy.  For you football fans, think Tim Tebow.

Michael Lynche: Enormous black guy who looks like he could bench press Cleveland.  His wife had a baby during audition week, making this proud papa a sentimental favorite.

Siobhan Magnus: Quirky but talented, unbelievable vocal range, but not exactly what you'd call mainstream.  By far the most interesting personality in the group.

Tim Urban: Douchebag.

Hypothesis: This year's American Idol will be Lee Dewyze.  I know, it's kind of anti-climactic showing you my prediction this early in the project, but that is the format specified in the Official Federation of Science Fairs and Janitorial Supplies Rule Book (5th Edition).


1.  I have spent countless minutes watching video from previous seasons of American Idol and scouring the Internet for information on this year's performances.  I've watched every episode so far this season except for the week when I had something better to do.  I think it was trimming my toenails.

2.  Using the data I compiled through my extensive research and using the process of elimination as described below, I determined this year's American Idol champion.


1.  From watching previous seasons of Idol, I came to the conclusion that the best singer usually does not win.  There have been exactly two exceptions: Kelly Clarkson and David Cook.  Aside from that, the best singer rarely makes it even as far as the top three as evidenced by the early departures of Chris Daughtry and Jennifer Hudson, among others.  Thus, Crystal Bowersox will not be this year's American Idol.

2.  No one who wears glasses has ever won American Idol.  This does not bode well for Andrew Garcia.

3.  Using the Chicken Little Dorkiness Postulate which states, "The most socially-awkward and dweeby contestant will hang around long enough to be annoying but won't crack the top five," I have determined that Aaron Kelly will not be the last doofus standing.  Incidentally, the Chicken Little Dorkiness Postulate is not to be confused with the equally valid Sanjaya Malakar Theory, which is "When a contestant comes along who is basically a parody of the human race and serves no purpose other than to be an intergalactic laughingstock, people will vote for him just as a joke."

4.  To be an American Idol, one must have a name that is easy to pronounce and not too difficult to spell.  This is supported simply by listing the names of past winners: Kelly, Ruben, Carrie, Fantasia (which would be trickier if not for the Disney movie), Taylor, Jordin, David, and Kris.  Therefore, this year's winner will not be Siobhan Magnus (I think her first name rhymes with "suburban" but I'm not positive).

5.  So far, every American Idol has fit a different profile.  Cute female pop artist, overweight black dude with a big voice, gorgeous country hick, black girl with an attitude, etc., etc.  I'm guessing that the Idol producers will work to ensure continued diversity among winners until they're faced with repeating a profile or crowning a Japanese midget with Tourette's Syndrome.  Anyway, since the "overweight black dude with a big voice" demographic was covered in Season Two by Ruben Studdard, Michael Lynche isn't winning this year.

6.  Guys who get votes based solely on their looks always survive longer than they should, but they never win.  This year there are two guys who fit into this category, Tim Urban and Casey James.  James is actually a good singer and guitarist and he looks like the guy in Nickelback.  Urban, on the other hand, is simply horrible and his big phony smile makes me want to punch him in the face. 

7.  We could just eliminate Katie Stevens using the "different profile" theory presented in step five, as she's simply a less-attractive and less-talented version of Kelly Clarkson.  But I'm choosing to go with the more scientific and intellectual reason she won't win, which is this:  Her singing sucks giant buffalo turds.

8.  It's a fact of life that all semi-attractive blond girls are virtually indistinguishable from one another.  Therefore, it is impossible for one of them to ever stand out in a crowd, which means that Didi Benami will disappear into Idol oblivion long before the finale.

Conclusion:  By process of elimination, Lee Dewyze is your Season Nine American Idol.

Additional Unrelated Observations:

Ellen Degeneres is fantastic.  Her quick-witted humor and good natured banter with the contestants are exactly what was needed to replace the drug-addled and obnoxious Paula Abdul.

Who's idea was it to have Miley Friggin' Cyrus serve as an Idol "mentor"?  Please.  Half the singers on the show are better than she is.  What's she going to tell someone like Crystal Bowersox, "Well, the first thing you need is a rich and famous daddy"?  Who are they going to get next, Britney Spears?


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Debbie(single;complicated) said...

ha ha ha ha ha!! loved this..started my morning on the right foot! whether you are right or not it certainly seems scientific!!!:)

Moooooog35 said...

Whatever the formula, there's a 100% chance I will never ever ever buy one of their CD's.

Homemaker Man said...

we came to the same conclusion about the possible winner last night. I miss Paula. I wish Kara had gone instead. She just won't shut-up and she's not as erudite as she thinks she is. One thing about this hypothesis: I do feel that Dewyze fits a similar profile to that of Daughtry and Cook. Douchebag rocker. Also, Cook sucked.

Heff said...

Excellent post, and I agree with you whole-heartedly, EXCEPT about Casey James - He's GOOD, but his guitar skills are BASIC at best. Plug in a wah-wah pedal and a 2 year old sounds good on a six string.

It's gonna be between Bowersox and Dewyze in my opinion.

Side Note - Kara Dioguardi needs to "do Playboy" whilst enjoying her "15 minutes".

Stacie's Madness said...

Mr.FF and I had a HEATED conversation on our predictions on who will win or not win...he's a factual based thinker and I am an emotional based thinker (go figure)

anyway. Though Crystal may be the best singer there (facts) I still think that Lee is gonna win it, he's the underdog, he's the cinderella story AND he's improving each week, there is room for growth (emotional). Crystal is maxed as far as potential.

Eva Gallant said...

I loved this post. I haven't watched much of Anerican Idol this year. I've gotten tired of it, I guess. It will be intereting to see if your predicted winner prevails.

IT said...

I now know more about American Idol than I ever really wanted. I also now know that a number of your followers watch American Idol.
I will admit to having watched Dancing with the Stars. but that was only because they showed a lot of skin.
I'm still lookin' for the Dodger shirt.

f8hasit said...

After the intial "you're going to Hollywood!", I never watch American Idol. I like the early try-outs because most are painful to watch. After that, I hate it. Why? Because now everytime I turn on the TV I have to see that glam-rocker guy from last season. C'mon. Really? That's news?


But my money is your science project/projection is probably right.

~jill said...

Paula was on drugs?.....i gotta pay attention...

middle child said...

Pop goes the Weasel, huh. Well, my grandson kinda did that. He was teasing his brother and sister by putting their hampster in there and he "accidentally" hit the start button. Ick!

Jeff said...

Miley Cyrus is young but comes across as very mature, in the sense of sounding like one of those 50-something year-old women who smoke 3 packs a day. Seriously, what's up with that voice?

ReformingGeek said...

Your logic is sound and you are most likely right.

Or, we could just draw a name or flip a coin.

Gee, I said that like I have a clue or a care about the show.


I watched Kelly Clarkson, the local girl win. That was enough.


screwdestiny said...

This post was great! I don't even watch American Idol anymore (only seasons I did watch were Ruben, Carrie, and David) because it's just ridiculous now. And Miley Cyrus is terrible. If I was a contestant I'd straight up tell her she wasn't going to "teach" me anything.

Compare Satellite TV said...

i agree with screwdestiny. miley really is terrible.

Barco Sin Vela II said...

I didn't realize American Idol was still being aired.

Reputation@Stake said...

I have never actually seen American Idol. Yes, it is very comfortable under my rock in North Dakota, but now I don't need to see it. I now know who the winner is going to be, as well as all the strange contestants. I feel like a good American again. Thanks Knucklehead.

Nooter said...

im holding my vote to see who sings the best rendition of 'how much is that doggie in the window'.

MikeWJ at Too Many Mornings said...

I predict Candice will win.


Because I'm not competing, that's why.

*I really wish I hadn't left this comment because it makes sound like an asshole. Again. But I thought it was funny and couldn't help myself. Maybe I could pretend to be Mooog and nobody would care if I was rude because they'd be expecting it. I'm actually a nice guy. I don't why this happened. Again.*

Nomad said...

i worked with big mike for 3 yrs in nyc and his wife too... so i am pulling for him... although he is big and black he is way more charismatic than rueben was... either way im biased, i have a few black"mail" pictures i could use... notice i said black "mail" and not black male...

Beth said...

While I KNOW what American Idol is, I've never watched it. So, does that make me special?

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